Ukraine Conflict: Self Sufficiency in Military Hardware Crucial
STORIES, ANALYSES, EXPERT VIEWS
The war in Ukraine has made global calculations go awry and will redefine the strategic equations in the very near future, argues Shishir Gupta (Executive Editor of the Hindustan Times). It has “already pushed Germany towards militarization and it is only a matter of time that Japan also shed its pacificist doctrine……With the US looking inwards and reluctant to lead the democratic world, middle powers like Japan, India and France will have to fend for themselves.
India’s “position will also get shaky as a long-drawn-out Ukraine conflict will hit on the supply of spares and armaments from Russia as the latter’s priority will be the war in Europe. The problems will be compounded as the Russian equipment, particularly the fighters are high maintenance with a long turnaround time as compared to the French fighters with Indian Air Force (IAF)…….”
Dependence on Russia military hardware
Manoj Joshi (distinguished fellow, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi) opines that “the United States-European Union (US-EU) sanctions can derail our ties with Russia.
“So far, India has remained neutral and abstained from voting against Russia at the United Nations (UN). But soon, there may be no more wiggle room left and the seas could become rougher, even stormy. This could push the US to place sanctions through the Countering American Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). This action can have its own geopolitical fallout on the growing Indo-US alignment aimed at checking China.”
India’s stand on the Russian invasion of Ukraine is largely shaped by “our significant reliance on Russia for military equipment, spare parts, and ancillaries, along with strategic weapons such as missiles and nuclear-propelled submarines. A 2021 study by Stimson Centre scholars suggests the share of major Russian systems in our military is an astonishing 85%. Between 2000 and 2020, Russia accounted for 66.5% of India’s arms imports.
Ongoing projects: “India’s current acquisitions include four more high performance S-400 surface-to-air (SAM) systems, four Grigorovich frigates (two to be built in India), 21 MiG-29 fighters, and an Akula nuclear-powered attack submarine on lease. There is also an order for Kalashnikov 203 assault rifles — 20,000 off the shelf and more than 500,000 licence built in India. At the planning stage are some missile acquisitions, including the hand-held anti-aircraft missile for the Indian Army.
“There are several ongoing projects — licence producing more T-90S tanks, Sukhoi 30 MKI fighters and upgrading the BrahMos missile to a hypersonic version. Note that ancillaries and components routinely imported from Russia are essential for maintaining existing equipment and licence production, though Indo-Russian projects for nuclear-propelled submarines are presumably already sanctions-proof.
Difficult to break away from Russia: India will therefore, find it difficult to break away from the Russians. "In the last two decades, India has enhanced arms purchases from countries such as France, Israel, and the US. Even if India were to stop all Russian purchases today, it would take decades before it would show. This is because systems such as tanks, fighter aircraft and ships, and artillery are routinely upgraded and often remain in service for decades.
The Russian arms industry is now in the cross-hairs of the Americans, and New Delhi and Moscow will have to come up with creative solutions to keep the relationship going. One obvious move would be to revert to the old rupee-ruble trade.”
A major problem for India, concludes Joshi “is the lack of an adequate general industrial capacity that can feed the domestic defence industry. Indian defence manufacturing may be on the point of take-off. But whether it can fly remains to be seen…..”
Exploring alternate military equipment
Aditya Pareek (research analyst at the Takshashila Institution) and Pranav R. Satyanath (independent analyst) explore the possibility of exploring alternate military equipment supplies.
Look for suppliers in former-Soviet states: “The first of these pathways is fairly easy: look for suppliers in former-Soviet states or in countries that have experience in retrofitting Soviet and Russian equipment with their own technologies. For example, Poland is among the best-known countries for upgrading its fleet of T-72 tanks with its very own upgrade package. Similarly, Georgia has also taken a similar route to upgrade its ageing armoured vehicles. These countries, which have taken to indigenous incremental innovation, could act as India’s spares suppliers.
“This solution, however, does not apply in all cases. Acquiring spares for Russian aircraft for the relatively newer platforms like the MiG-29 and the Sukhoi-30 MKI will be much more difficult. While it is true that India builds Russian fighters such as the Sukhoi-30 MKI under licence, it still depends on Russian suppliers for critical components, which often leads to spares being in short supply.”
Manufacture indigenously and innovate: The second solution, therefore, write the two authors “is to manufacture these components indigenously and innovate incrementally to improve existing capabilities. Iran’s pathway to maintain the air-worthiness of its F-14 fleet offers useful lessons.” It has “managed to maintain a sizeable chunk of its US supplied and subsequently embargoed F-14 Tomcat fighter aircraft fleet, which protects Iranian skies to this day….”
Ukraine has not only indigenised maintenance, but also managed to modernise and upgrade airframes of MiG 29 aircraft with some help from other countries.
Of course, caution the two authors “choosing to manufacture equipment for Russian weapons will certainly violate contractual agreements and infringe intellectual property. If, however, Russia is unable to maintain its obligations in the near future, the MoD will either have to witness a slow decay of India’s Russian-origin military equipment or manufacture spares indigenously under such extraordinary circumstances.”
Self Reliance, the key
In the circumstance, the government last week approving four Defence Ministry funded projects and five industry-funded projects under the ‘Aatmanirbharta’ (self reliance programme) initiative, is significant.”
This is “not only the key to push India to the high table but also the lever to exercising truly independent foreign policy options….” writes Shishir Gupta (Executive Editor of the Hindustan Times).
Foreign policy options for India, argues Gupta have “been constrained by its limited capacity to manufacture hardware……” Specifically, “outright hardware acquisition or transfer of technology under licence from Russia has severely limited the country's strategic options. More than often, India’s belief and its strategies have not been on the same page due to New Delhi’s faith in rather laggard Indian defence public sector units and its in-built suspicion towards the private sector. The result is that a PSU assembled Su-30 MKI fighter in India is more costly than the one made in parent country Russia…..”
Diversifying military hardware no solution: Diversifying military hardware, as India has been trying, is also of little benefit. Exchanging dependency on Russia for dependency on the West is no solution for India, writes The Times India.
“Over the last decade India has made concerted attempts to diversify its defence imports. For example, the Indian air force today heavily relies on the American C-17 and C-130J Super Hercules in its heavy-lift transport fleet. The helicopter fleet too has inducted the American Chinook and Apache. But cost competitiveness, proven battlefield performance and familiarity with consecutive generations of servicemen still make Russian platforms preferable. Then there is the issue of technology transfer. Although no country is willing to share cutting-edge military tech, Russia has been slightly more open to helping India develop strategic platforms such as cruise missiles and nuclear submarines.
“Even with this Russian help, India today is in no position to build assets like a fifth-generation fighter from scratch. In the near term, India has to maintain a diversified defence portfolio, because switching out all Russian defence equipment for Western imports is not feasible. But in the medium- to long-term, especially given the sanctions on Russia and Moscow’s growing strategic convergence with Beijing, India has to develop its own indigenous military-industrial complex, capable of serving various needs including cutting-edge platforms. That’s the only way to have a truly independent defence and strategic policy.”
