The Trump Impact in Asia: India should contend with Growing Disorder
STORIES, ANALYSES, EXPERT VIEWS
The annual Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD) in Singapore, according to C Raja Mohan (contributing editor on international affairs for The Indian Express and holds the Korea Chair at the Council on Strategic and Defence Research, Delhi) offers “insights into the rapidly shifting contours of Asian geopolitics.”
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth outlined the administration’s priorities for Asia. French President Emmanuel Macron’s keynote address offered a European perspective on Asian security that diverged from Washington’s in key respects.
Much of Asia was eager to hear from Hegseth about the Trump administration’s strategic intentions. Many countries remain caught in the crossfire of President Trump’s trade wars and were watching closely to see if Washington would uphold traditional alliances or, as in Europe, move to dismantle them.
Hegseth, however, steered clear of economics, saying his focus was ‘tanks, not tariffs’. He had strong words on China’s military capabilities and ambitions of annexing Taiwan. Even as Hegseth warned against Chinese hegemony, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the breakdown of the trade truce with Beijing he had negotiated last month. Asia and the world, which welcomed the relaxation of US-China commercial tensions, “must now brace for more turbulence,” emphasis Mohan.
US on regional security: On regional security, Hegseth reaffirmed a strong US commitment to alliances and partnerships in Asia. ‘No one should doubt America’s commitment to our Indo-Pacific allies and partners… We will continue to wrap our arms around our friends and find new ways to work together.’ Yet, he made it clear that US support would not be unconditional: He called on allies to shoulder more responsibility, notably by raising their defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP. "This is an impossible ask for most Asian nations,” notes Mohan. “Japan has promised to raise it to 2 per cent but is having trouble mobilising the financial resources for it. India, despite a two-front threat from China and Pakistan, spends only about 2 per cent."
NATO’s potential role in Asia: Asked about NATO’s potential role in Asia, Hegseth urged Europe to remain focused on Russia rather than overstretch its resources in the Indo-Pacific. Macron, however, had a different message. He emphasised Europe’s stake in Indo-Pacific security and called for new coalitions between Europe and Asian partners. Macron stressed the importance of ‘strategic autonomy’ and a balanced approach to global power shifts.
In this context, Mohan writes “for over three decades, India’s Asian strategy was premised on great-power harmony, regional stability, economic interdependence and stronger regional institutions. That era may be ending. Delhi must now contend with growing disorder, which demands both stronger national capabilities and enhanced strategic flexibility.”
