Northeast: Tripura, Meghalaya, and Nagaland Polls and Their Impact on National Politics

Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland, are to go to  the polls to elect their assemblies on February 16 and 27 respectively. They have only 5 seats in Parliament, but writes The Indian Express, “the March 2 results are likely to have a bearing on national politics. The two main national parties, BJP and Congress, are in the fray in all three states; wins and losses are bound to influence perceptions as the battle shifts to bigger states. Six more assembly polls are due this year.”

Tripura

In Tripura, the BJP is likely to face a grand alliance of CPM, Congress and Tipra Motha, an outfit that claims to represent the state’s indigenous people. The BJP, which ended the nearly three decade-rule of the CPM in Tripura in 2018, “needs to retain office to impress that its rise in the state was no fluke.” For the CPM a “win in Tripura will be a first step for the CPM to regain its national footprint — in the first decade of this century, the party had governments in West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura, but today it is restricted to Kerala.”

However, “the game-changer could be Tipra Motha, which has gained remarkable influence among the state’s indigenous communities who are influential in about two dozen assembly seats in a short span of time.”

Meghalaya and Nagaland

Meghalaya and Nagaland are headed by regional outfits. Local issues determine the outcome more than any national alliance. The peace accord is likely to figure prominently in Nagaland.

In Meghalaya, Sangma’s NPP faces a challenge from the Trinamool Congress, which displaced the Congress as the main Opposition when 12 of the latter’s 17 MLAs crossed over. The Indian Express writes “history shows that government-making in these states tends to be heavily influenced by the party in office at the Centre — earlier the Congress and now the BJP. It is likely to remain so, especially if the polls turn out to be close contests.”

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