Myanmar: Impact on Security of the Northeast
STORIES, ANALYSES, EXPERT VIEWS
Security of Manipur is connected to the security of the entire Northeast. The seven northeastern states are connected with Myanmar, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal and impact each other in multiple ways.
Threat perception from Myanmar
As a security measure, the Centre has decided that the India-Myanmar border will be covered by barbed fencing on the same lines as the India-Bangladesh border. The states of Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram share a 1,643-km border with Myanmar.
Importantly, India has also abrogated the ‘free movement’ agreement with Myanmar which allowed people living 16 km on each side of the border unfettered movement across the border on production of border passes.
These steps may not be enough. The ongoing violence in Myanmar, writes Kamal Davar (retired lieutenant-general; former founder of the Defence Intelligence Agency and deputy chief of the Integrated Defence Staff) has “raised deep security concerns in India, apart from the large influx of refugees expected to result, which will be a natural outcome of this turmoil.”
The northeast: despite improvement, serious intra-tribal conflicts persist
India’s Northeast region is surrounded by Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, Nepal and Myanmar. It includes Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland and Tripura. Sikkim too is seen as part of this region. The region, emphasises Davar “has wide disparity in cultures and a host of historical, political and social conflicts have afflicted this region for years, posing both external and internal security challenges to the country.”
Northeast India has been in some form of turmoil or the other since India’s Independence in 1947. Over the years, there has been an unmistakable improvement, with tribals in various states joining the national mainstream and contributing to the nation’s growth. Yet, states Davar “some serious intra-tribal conflicts persist…..Some of these are engineered from across the porous borders between the Northeast states and countries surrounding them, with China having a hidden hand in supporting some of these insurgencies."
Civil war in Myanmar has contributed to instability: The civil war raging in Myanmar has “contributed to instability in Manipur and threatens to spread to Mizoram and even other northeastern states is a stark possibility. India’s Northeast region is the gateway for the successful pursuit of India’s ‘Act East’ policy, which is a cardinal imperative for the nation.”
In the last three years, tens of thousands of people have fled their homes in Myanmar and sought refuge in India’s northeastern states, further compounding the security situation and augmenting tribal fissures in them.
For this reason, India always maintained a close relationship with Myanmar’s military whose help is needed in counter-insurgency operations against “Chinese proxy gangs, who are based in Myanmar’s inhospitable border regions…”
For India, the international pulls and pressures within Myanmar, “the inability of the junta to maintain peace and order inside their nation and the proliferation of strong insurgent and separatist groups portends ominous tidings. The influx of illegal immigrants, increase in the already existing substantial drugs trade and weapons to fuel local insurgent groups within our Northeast region, is fraught with serious security concerns. The prevailing situation in Manipur state is a manifestation of this ascending malady.’
