Kejriwal could be The Fulcrum of Opposition
Asia News Agency
In the scenario of diminishing returns for the opposition, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has emerged as a positive in Indian polity. With its massive victory in Punjab, AAP has two crucial states under its belt - the other being Delhi where it has defeated the BJP, not once but twice and on both occasion convincingly.
With the Congress loosing ground rapidly, Mark Tully (former Bureau Chief of BBC, New Delhi) writes "If there is to be an alternative to the BJP, the only current possibility would seem to be an alliance of regional parties, each limited to one state….” Arvind Kejriwal, Delhi chief minister and AAP chief, could be the leader of such an alliance.
Ominous signs for Congress
Signs are ominous for the Congress. Now that it has lost Punjab, the only two sizeable states that it rules are Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. Both of their CMs have had to cope with dissatisfaction, which could easily have led to open rebellion.
The results of these elections, writes Tully “could revive rebelliousness in both states. This is made even more likely by the fate Priyanka Gandhi Vadra suffered in UP, where she was in charge, and the party won just two seats. The Congress is being held together by the belief the Gandhi family’s name brings the party votes and the fear that without the family, it will fall apart.
“With Sonia Gandhi unwell, Rahul Gandhi‘s record of failures, and now, Priyanka failing too, how much longer can the Congress hold together? If it does not, can Kejriwal and his AAP provide a national alternative to the BJP?”
Why AAP can replace Congress as the national Opposition
After it’s landslide victory in Punjab and as the AAP snaps at the Congress’s heels in Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka and beyond, Praneet Pathak (studies marketing at IMT and is a keen observer of Indian democracy) presents reasons why the party may well replace the Congress as India’s national opposition.
AAP’s ‘alternative governance’ agenda captures hopes of voters: The Congress, he argues ‘has no marketable model of governance for states, unlike the AAP’s Delhi model and the BJP’s Gujarat model.
“In such a vacuum, the AAP offers an alternate form of governance which reduces the cost of living and increases the disposable incomes of common folk through innovations in welfarism; enhances opportunities for upliftment and dignified existence for the deprived through reformed public healthcare and education systems; improves services delivery through the use of technology and updated delivery structures, like the doorstep delivery of services and provisions for universal water supply and sewage network access.
“Through these steps, the party has astutely identified the unaddressed needs of voters, challenged itself to fulfil them and has thereby created a durable voter base that transcends old voter blocks……….”
AAP has successfully navigated BJP’s emotive appeal of Hindutva and nationalism: The AAP has successfully navigated BJP’s emotive appeal of Hindutva and nationalism “with harmless symbolism, such as temple visits, one crore honorariums for martyrs, religious tours etc. It has also carefully avoided getting entangled in the cultural and religious debates that keep the focus of the polity on cultural differences instead of governance issues…..”
Thus, argues Pathak, “the AAP has struck a balance where those Hindus who feel alienated are brought back to the liberal fold by having their sentiments acknowledged and respected publicly, neutralising the sense of victimhood that the BJP has carefully nursed amongst Hindus and thereby allowing the elections to be fought on issues of governance.
Kejriwal scores better than Rahul Gandhi
Arvind Kejriwal also wins the battle against Rahul Gandhi argues Tully. “Gandhi has not been in any position of governance and is unable to inspire confidence in the voters regarding his ability to govern, whereas Kejriwal has been a chief minister thrice and has been re-elected on the basis of his governance record.
“Kejriwal is also a much more potent organisation builder and a more convincing public speaker…..” He “is perceived as a self-made man who cleared both the IIT and civil services entrance exams; won a Magsaysay award for social services; and is a renowned anti-corruption crusader. This makes him better placed to emerge as an opposition face behind whom the public can unite and credibly challenge Modi.”
AAP familiar with ‘new-age electioneering’: According to Tully, AAP has also mastered new age electioneering. It “has a domineering presence on various social media platforms; ostensibly has a better understanding of the search algorithms; has more passionate online volunteers; and has innovative multi-media messaging which allows it to disproportionately set the online – and thereafter, offline – narrative; a task the Congress often finds itself struggling at.”
Proper organisation and a mission: The Congress, “is manned by demoralised, uninspired leaders and volunteers who are out of sync with the people’s expectations……In contrast, the AAP has an army of young, loyal, dedicated volunteers, with an abiding belief in the mission of the party. This helps it create a buzz and win the perception battle.”
AAP may find it difficult to be the alternative to BJP
Analyst Anand K Sahay however, is not so sure of AAP’s credentials. “Do the claims made for the AAP take precedence over several other regional entities who may aspire similarly? This question is also not tackled. But these aspects aside, is the AAP best suited among India’s political parties to take on the BJP ideologically?
"Unless a challenger threatens the BJP ideologically and offers a coherent and credible narrative on an all-India basis, there seems little hope for it, given the current scenario. If anything, the BJP’s spectacular results in the recent state elections show that its ideology has prevailed with voters across a swathe of the country -- and all its opponents, not just the Congress, have bitten the dust…..”
