Inside Pakistan: Chaos should worry India
STORIES, ANALYSES, EXPERT VIEWS
The impact of the events of May 9, 2023 are likely to be felt across Pakistan and beyond. Ramanathan Kumar (Special Secretary in the Research & Analysis Wing) examines implications for the national security of India, of the prospect of an economic and political meltdown in Pakistan.
Security of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal
Among the valid questions raised, “is that of the security of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.” Is there a possibility of the attack at the Corps Commander’s residence be replicated at any of the installations housing Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and material? Or, “could the numerous terrorist organisations active in Pakistan, such as the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) turn such situations of chaos and instability to their advantage and lay their hands on nuclear weapon components or fissile material? It is well known that transnational jihadi organisations and their leaders have publicly signalled their interest in obtaining weapons of mass destruction, considering it their religious obligation to do so.”
For years, Pakistan has dismissed such fears as exaggerated, maintaining that it has a robust and dedicated nuclear command and control system comprising institutions such as the Nuclear Command Authority (NCA), Strategic Plans Division (SPD) and the Strategic Force Commands (SFCs) of the three services that makes it impossible for the country’s nuclear weapons to fall into unauthorised hands. The SPD is the keystone of Pakistan’s nuclear security architecture.
Against this background, Kumar states “it may not be entirely far-fetched to visualise a scenario in which the SPD leadership or a faction thereof develops sympathy for political actors opposed to the army or the government of the day for any reason…..”
The weaponisation of religion, concludes Kumar, “for achieving political and strategic goals, the incessant meddling by the army in civilian affairs, the obsession with Kashmir and the posture of perpetual enmity towards India have now come to haunt Pakistan. An ascendance of obscurantist forces may only make Pakistan more irrational, more truculent and more unpredictable. For India, therefore, heightened caution, rather than any form of triumphalism, may be a more advisable policy to adopt in the circumstances.”
