India - Turkye: Need for Recalibrate Relationship
STORIES, ANALYSES, EXPERT VIEWS
Pakistan, while lacking credibility as a serious State, is utterly predictable according to RK Raghavan (former high commissioner to Cyprus and a former director of CBI ) and Ajay Goyal (geopolitical risk strategist). “History suggests that it will not reform; it will double down on its terror infrastructure, continue proxy wars, and even pick fights it is certain to lose.
“Despite the broader Arab and Muslim world rejecting Pakistan’s religious narrative, Islamabad continues to play the victim card. The only constituencies still buying into this story are segments of the Muslim populations in Europe and North America — and the politicians dependent on their votes. The only country offering unqualified support to Pakistan is Turkiye. Emboldened by its campaigns in Syria and the Caucasus against Armenia, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has aligned himself firmly with Pakistan.”
That said, “goodwill towards India and Indians runs deep in Turkish society. Indian diplomacy must build on this public sentiment and prepare for a recalibrated relationship once Erdoğan exits the political stage.”
Growing demand now to boycott everything Turkish
For the present, nationalist tendencies have taken front stage. Indians are cancelling their travel plans to Türkiye in droves. Travel websites are no longer selling holiday packages to picturesque Cappadocia or Antalya.
This is because Pakistan military was using Turkish weapons to escalate the conflict. Initial investigations suggest that the hundreds of Pak drones deployed against India were of Turkish make. So, there’s a growing demand now to boycott everything Turkish, from apples to Turkish delight.
Pakistan’s natural ideological cousin
Ankara, writes Rudroneel Ghosh (Senior Assistant Editor at The Times of India) “has solidly backed Islamabad in the military hostilities with New Delhi. And while Pak army chief Asim Munir and the military-ISI complex were seen to be the architects of the conflict, the figure who may have been egging on Rawalpindi GHQ is Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.”
Muslim Brotherhood ties: South Asia is not traditionally part of Turkish foreign policy-security calculus. “Look closer and a potential recipe for trouble emerges. There are Brotherhood ties. Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) are from the Muslim Brotherhood family. This makes him Pakistan’s natural ideological cousin.
“There are two strands to his politics – Islamist conservatism and Turkish nationalism. With Erdogan effectively burying Ataturk’s secular Republicanism, Pak leadership has long viewed his Islamist project in Türkiye as a template……Strategically, therefore, a compact between the two Sunni Muslim nations – one a nuclear state, the other a Nato member – smoothly fits with Erdogan’s plans for enhancing regional Turkish influence from the Bosphorus to the Indus.”
Erdogan backs Pakistan’s position on Kashmir
Erdogan thus, “fully backs Pakistan’s position on Kashmir. This plays well with his conservative vote base. And he likes to play the neo-Ottoman ‘caliph’ for them. It also aligns with his regional power tussle with Gulf Arab monarchies, particularly Saudi Arabia. The latter has long seen Pak nukes as an insurance against Shia Iran. In fact, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has reportedly said that if Riyadh ever needed a nuclear bomb, he could buy one from Islamabad.”
Opportunity for Erdogan to undercut the Arabs
It’s against this backdrop that Erdogan’s moves in South Asia need to be seen, according to the two authors. “With Gulf Arab monarchies strengthening their ties with India in recent years (driven by a powerful economic-security logic) and becoming more sensitive to New Delhi’s position on Kashmir, Erdogan sees an opportunity to undercut the Arabs by staunchly standing with Pakistan in its disputes with India. This is Erdogan playing out his own Ottoman-Mamluk war.
“Plus, given the emerging Gulf-US-Israel dynamic in West Asia, as exemplified by the Abraham Accords, Erdogan is looking at South Asia to cultivate leverage. And Islamabad is only too happy to oblige – it needs as many foreign stakeholders in Pakistan as possible so that it doesn’t become the vassal of any single player.”
Erdogan’s family ties with Turkish arms manufacturing industry
Another factor driving Erdogan’s foreign policy “is the domestic Turkish arms manufacturing industry that is closely tied to his family. His son-in-law Selcuk Bayraktar is the chairman of Turkish defence contractor Baykar, the maker of Bayraktar drones. Erdogan apparently likes to keep strategic businesses within the family……Erdogan uses this new depth in Turkish defence industry to push a militarised foreign policy. In fact, Turkish defence industry has emerged as a key pillar of Turkish economy, serving as a stabiliser in times of turmoil. Therefore, Turkish arms flow to regional actors such as Qatar, UAE and groups in Syria to serve multiple agendas.”
Türkiye, incidentally, is Pakistan’s second-largest arms supplier after China. Hence, Erdogan’s defence assistance to Islamabad is part of his military-strategic regional play.
