India - Sri Lanka: Presidential Polls; India Keeping a Close Eye
STORIES, ANALYSES, EXPERT VIEWS
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Sri Lanka on 21 September 2024. India is keeping a close eye on the developments in the run-up to the election.
Main players
The main party in Parliament, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) of the Rajapaksas, which backed Ranil Wickremesinghe for the presidency during the crisis, decided not to support him further. It has pitched for Namal Rajapaksa, son of Mahinda Rajapaksa, as their candidate. If Namal fails to perform well, Gurjit Singh (former Ambassador of India to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, ASEAN and the African Union) writes “the SLPP would face challenges in the parliamentary elections, likely to be held within a year.”
A potent challenger is Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the National People’s Power (NPP), which is the political wing of the radical Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP). The JVP, after its hostile activity till 1989, states Singh “has become a political party and works overground. It was the mainstay of ‘Aragalaya’ (the struggle), the 2022 agitation.”
Contest is between Anura and Sajith: According to a pre-poll survey, Anura is leading with 43 per cent of the votes. Ranil (27 per cent) is ahead of Sajith (22 per cent). Namal has only 3 per cent support. In recent weeks, 10 per cent of the undecided voters seem to have moved in Ranil’s direction, giving his campaign a fillip. However, poll analysts in Colombo say the contest is between Anura and Sajith.
India, writes Singh should be concerned about the outcome of this election. “India seems to have played its cards better in Sri Lanka” than in Bangladesh. During his June visit to Sri Lanka, External Affairs Minister (EAM) S Jaishankar met leaders of all hues, including Sajith and Anura. Anura made the first-ever visit by a JVP leader to India at the government’s invitation in February. He met the National Security Adviser, the EAM and others while visiting Delhi, Thiruvananthapuram and Ahmedabad. He acknowledged India’s role in helping Sri Lanka during an economic crisis two years ago. Anura said he did not follow the JVP’s old policy of being anti-India and would like to work with everybody possible.
Sajith, whose father Ranasinghe Premadasa “was an anti-India UNP leader, has modulated his stance.’ He has “acknowledged that India’s timely assistance was of great sustenance to Sri Lanka, and that Delhi was a valuable friend."
Ranil has been a friend to India since long. He attended PM Modi’s swearing-in in June and discussed various matters with the Indian leadership.
India thus “has got its bases covered with all major parties in Sri Lanka and is not taking sides in this contest whose result is not easy to predict….”
China will always remain important to Sri Lanka
Although Sri Lankan leaders know that when the chips were down, India provided $4-billion aid to bail the island nation out, and then participated in a debt rescheduling exercise when China did neither, “yet, China will always remain important to Sri Lanka for investment in its projects, and to balance India out. Hence, Chinese naval ships will not be prohibited from visiting Sri Lanka, but they will be advised not to carry out surveillance or anti-India activity, like it was done in the case of a research vessel two years ago.
“India would have to live with this and do more, possibly with Japan, trilaterally, to build economic relationships to balance China out in Sri Lanka. India’s private sector investments in Sri Lanka and development cooperation projects are highly regarded, giving India the reputation of a good neighbour.”
Little enthusiasm in Sri Lanka: have little to look forward to
Most people, reports Meera Srinivasan (senior assistant editor with The Hindu and 2015/16 Elizabeth Neuffer Fellow) have little to look forward to. The reasons are primarily economic and making both ends meet. The painful economic crash in 2022, when they took to the streets amid acute shortages and long power cuts, are to blame. The mass uprising booted out former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who fled the country and resigned.
Tourism is the bread and butter of the island economy and the government is targeting more visitors, so the dollars they bring can refill its coffers that ran dry two years ago. Further, it is hoping to boost its foreign exchange earnings from exports and remittances of workers — $ 5.9 billion in 2023 — who have flown out. Nearly 75,000 workers have left the country in the first quarter of 2024, after some 6 lakh people left during the preceding two years, a stark increase in departures, data published by the Sri Lanka Bureau of Foreign Employment showed.
President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who replaced Gotabaya, is seeking a mandate to take forward his government’s economic recovery programme. He claims credit for restoring stability.
Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa is running for President. Political parties in parliament, writes Srinivasan “are pledging support to their preferred candidate based on past alignment and future alliance prospects in the parliamentary elections expected soon.”
Defunct local and provincial bodies
Sri Lanka’s local and provincial bodies are currently defunct — elections have been indefinitely postponed — bringing residents’ hyper-local, infrastructure-related concerns to the fore. While some voters are looking for provincial solutions, even as they navigate the national economic crisis, Srinivasan states “few voice optimism about any candidate delivering on their demands. There are 38 presidential aspirants contesting this election but many voters in the hill country say they are not spoilt for choice.”
Sri Lankan Tamil community important for India
For India, the Sri Lankan Tamil community is important. After battling for citizenship until 2003 — a 1948 legislation rendered them stateless — they have been demanding decent housing and land rights for decades. About 68% of people still live in colonial-era line rooms and don’t own even a little piece of land. “Decades of neglect made the community more vulnerable than most others in Sri Lanka during the island nation’s worst economic downturn since Independence….”
