India - Nepal: Pro-Monarchy Sentiment

The violent protests in Kathmandu last week, which left two dead, dozens injured, were spearheaded by fringe political forces such as the royalist Rastriya Prajatantra Party. Though long relegated to the political margins, the royalist camp has managed to seize upon growing disillusionment with the political establishment.

Decisive break from monarchy: The series of pro-monarchist rallies have been drawing crowds across Kathmandu and other cities, signalling an undercurrent of dissatisfaction with the republic, which is surprising and concerning. Nearly two decades ago, Nepal made a decisive break from monarchy, an institution that had shaped its identity for over 240 years. This was neither a moment of spontaneous outrage nor a casual shift, but the culmination of years of discontent.

The integration of Maoists, along with the withdrawal of international support — particularly Indian — for the monarchy, sealed the institution’s fate. A democratically elected Constituent Assembly (CA) was formed, and in 2008, passed a near-unanimous resolution declaring Nepal to be a federal democratic republic. Despite the political volatility Nepal has remained a constitutional republic.

Factors supporting the pro-monarchy  movement

Nevertheless, strong protests by pro-royalist forces have garnered widespread media coverage, with thousands taking to the streets demanding the reinstatement of the monarchy.

Several factors contribute to this shift, according to Pramod Jaiswal (research director, Nepal Institute for International Cooperation and Engagement).  “Since Nepal abolished its monarchy in 2008, it has faced political instability, frequent govt changes, rampant corruption, and myriad governance challenges. The post-Covid period brought additional challenges, such as inflation, declining remittances and financial scandals, including the cooperative bank fraud that implicated political leaders across all parties. This climate of dissatisfaction has led many to believe that Nepal’s democratic system has failed.”

In parallel, a wave of nationalist sentiments has swept Nepal. “Political parties in Nepal have strategically leveraged these nationalist sentiments to push their own agendas, particularly in relation to key issues like China’s Belt and Road Initiative, US’s MCC Compact, and the ongoing border disputes with India. Some argue that the abolition of the monarchy has weakened Nepal’s sovereignty, especially in its dealings with neighbours. They believe that the monarchy represented a symbol of unity and independence, and reinstating it could restore national pride.”

The Hindu identity factor

Another critical driver, writes Jaiswal “is the ‘Hindu factor’. As Hindu nationalism gains traction in India, particularly with the rising influence of BJP and Hindutva groups, there is a growing demand in Nepal to restore its status as a Hindu state. This sentiment has been fuelled by the belief that the monarchy, which historically represented Nepal’s Hindu identity, could play a key role in this restoration. Former king Gyanendra’s meetings with prominent BJP politicians, including Yogi Adityanath, and the display of the UP CM’s photo on placards during protests suggest that monarchy’s supporters are attempting to link the monarchy’s return with the revival of Nepal’s Hindu identity.”

Despite public anger, the king’s return is doubtful:   However, “monarchy’s supporters are divided with conflicting goals: some advocate for the restoration of the king, while others seek to create a Hindu state using the monarchy as a symbol of ultra-nationalism. This lack of unity and clear direction weakens the movement and makes it difficult to mobilise widespread support.

“Plus, the pro-monarchy movement lacks international support. Nepal’s democratisation has been supported by key global players, including US, EU and India. New Delhi, in particular, has played a critical role in supporting Nepal’s political transitions. And it is unlikely to back the revival of the monarchy, given the strained relations between the royal family and India during the reigns of king Mahendra and king Gyanendra.”

Nevertheless, it is a fact that public frustration has risen over political instability since the abolition of the monarchy,  over the failure of successive governments to deliver on commitments to develop the economy.

However, despite the growing support, political analysts believe the king’s  chances of regaining the throne remain slim in the near future. The republic is constitutionally enshrined, and mainstream political parties remain opposed to reinstating the monarchy.

Instability not in India’s interest

For India, instability in Nepal is not in its interest, according to Ranjit Rae, former Indian ambassador to Nepal. He also opines that New Delhi should not take sides at this juncture.

‘A turbulent Nepal creates fertile ground for external players to increase their influence, jeopardising India’s strategic position. Additionally, India’s ambition to be the voice of the Global South would be undermined by unrest in its immediate neighbourhood. Instead, we should focus on strengthening connectivity and development initiatives, particularly in hydropower, which can further integrate our economies.

'We must also enhance engagement with political parties across the spectrum, especially new and emerging forces and the youth. Ultimately, India’s only interest should be in seeing a stable, secure, prosperous, and friendly Nepal,’ Rae writes in a column for Deccan Herald.

All Neighbours Article