India - Myanmar: Difficult Choices for India
STORIES, ANALYSES, EXPERT VIEWS
Despite attempts by the Myanmar’s military, the Arakan Army is now estimated to control eight-tenths of the province of Rakhine, raising speculation the region could be the first to be liberated from the control of the junta.
Less clear, though, in the view of Praveen Swami (contributing editor at ThePrint) “is what comes next—and that confronts India with tough choices. Fearing the impacts the disintegration of Myanmar could have on security in the Northeast, India has long resisted formal diplomatic engagement with insurgent groups in that country. That policy, though, is no longer sustainable.”
India vacillating between support for democracy and Tatmadaw
The difficult choices India now faces “aren’t new. From the outset, New Delhi knew it needed Myanmar’s help to contain secessionist insurgencies in the Northeast…..Like many other regional powers, India has seen the Tatmadaw as the only force that can ensure a functioning political system. For all practical purposes, though, the Arakan Army is beginning to emerge as the de facto ruler of Rakhine and its governing authority. For India to exercise influence east of its borders, it will have to do business with the insurgents.”
To secure its interests—key among them the $484-million Kaladan Multi-modal Transit Transport Project, which seeks to link Kolkata with Sittwe—“India thus even provided military support to the Tatmadaw in the face of attacks from the Arakan Army. The army’s rise will clearly make it impossible to sustain a policy of only dealing with the Tatmadaw.”
In 1988, “Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s government threw its weight behind the democracy movement in Myanmar. Four years later, though, it was forced to reverse course, fearing the Generals’ drift toward China. Today, India has to make the same choice again—but the price of calling the bet wrong could be even higher.”
The China angle: For its part, writes Swami “China—which has been sitting on the fence through much of the insurgent-junta conflict—appears to have thrown its weight behind the Generals. General Min Aung Hlaing, the junta chief, met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Kunming earlier this month, a public demonstration of support…..”
