India - China: Diplomatic Initiatives by China Lack Credibility

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India - China: Diplomatic Initiatives by China Lack Credibility

There seems to be a thaw in the frosty equation between India and China, and it is to be hoped that the overture from Beijing shall be sustained. President Xi Jinping’s letter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, promising support on Covid-19,  is the first such communication between the two in the aftermath of last year’s pandemic and the border crisis.

“I am very concerned about the recent situation caused by the Covid-19 pandemic in India. On behalf of the Chinese government and people, as well as in my own name, I would like to express sincere sympathies to the Indian Government and people,” Xi said in the message. “Humanity is a community with a shared future. Only through solidarity and cooperation can countries around the world ultimately defeat the pandemic.”

“The Chinese side stands ready to strengthen cooperation with the Indian side in fighting the pandemic and provide support and help in this regard. I believe that under the leadership of the Indian Government, the Indian people will surely prevail over the pandemic,” was Xi’s assurance.

In what appears to be well calibrated diplomatic move, Xi’s message was followed by a telephone call Friday from China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, to his counterpart, Mr S Jaishankar.

The Chinese foreign minister said that “anti-pandemic materials produced in China are entering India at a faster pace to help the country fight the epidemic”. Orders for oxygen concentrators, ventilators and other medical supplies are being sourced from China, although there are some complaints of predatory pricing.

Eight hundred  oxygen concentrators had been flown in from Hong Kong some days ago and China had, since April, “supplied more than 5,000 ventilators, 21,569 oxygen generators, over 21.48 million masks and around 3,800 tons of medicines to India” according to Chinese customs data.

 

Chinese initiatives lack credibility

China, however, continues to drag  its feet over restoring status quo ante. In the circumstance, the normalisation of relations, writes Shishir Gupta (Executive Editor of the Hindustan Times) “are hinged on PLA actions on the LAC. Till such time, China is a threat to India…….”

Describing the military situation along the 3,488 km LAC as largely stable,  Gupta says “the military commanders of the two sides are now trying to restore the status quo ante in the Gogra-Hot Springs area. The process despite interventions at the level of State Councillor and foreign minister has been very laborious with Xi Jinping wanting Prime Minister Narendra Modi to resume business as usual without resolving the fundamental friction between the two countries……

“Although President Xi did write a letter of support to PM Modi on the resurgent pandemic, the missive made no mention that the two sides will restore peace and tranquillity on the LAC……State Councillor and foreign minister Wang Yi has held several dialogues with external affairs minister S Jaishankar and with National Security Advisor Ajit Doval as Special Representative on boundary issues but the Chinese refuse to recognise that there can be no serious relationship with the Modi government till such time status quo ante is restored and 1993/1996 peace and tranquillity agreements implemented. PM Modi and his military advisors are not comfortable in carrying out an economic relationship on a separate track with Beijing while its own soldiers are deployed in all readiness at the LAC with PLA increased activity across Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh border. It is more than clear that the time for parallel diplomacy as practised during the previous regimes is over, with India in no mood to allow PLA to change the ground situation unilaterally. The Chinese posture towards India in nuclear supplier group, terrorism emanating from Pakistan and increased maritime activity in the Persian Gulf and on the eastern board of Africa are all under notice and New Delhi is no longer squeamish about being a prominent member of QUAD as its agenda is far beyond than challenging China.”

 

China consolidates positions along LAC

As of now, there is no 12th round of military talks on the horizon. And, a year after Indian and Chinese soldiers first clashed on the north bank of Pangong Tso in eastern Ladakh, China is now further reinforcing its military positions and rotating troops in the “depth areas” along the Line of Control (LOC) in a clear signal that it has no intent to de-escalate anytime soon.

With the harsh winter having receded, Rajat Pandit (Senior Assistant Editor, Times of India) reports the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is fast converting the temporary structures, ammunition dumps, helipads and surface-to-air missile positions it had set up last year in the “depth areas”, ranging from 25 to 120-km from the LAC, into permanent positions now.

“There is no fresh accretion of PLA troops on the frontlines in eastern Ladakh. But China continues to maintain sizable forces in the areas to the rear of the friction points, while it reinforces military positions all along the frontier in the region,” said a senior officer Tuesday.

“The Rutog Country area, which can act as a staging area for Pangong Tso since it is only around 100-km away, for instance, has witnessed a lot of activity in recent days. The PLA, of course, can move forces much faster to the LAC due to better road and other connectivity,” he added.

After multiple diplomatic and military talks, the two armies finally disengaged on both sides of the Pangong Tso in February. But since then, the PLA has flatly refused to pull-back from Gogra, Hot Springs, Demchok and Depsang Plains.

With the onset of summer, both India and China are rotating their troops in the forward areas as well as readying for their annual exercises and stepped-up deployments now. The PLA, for instance, has replaced its two motorized infantry divisions across the LAC with fresh ones over the last month.

Apart from systematically building roads, military camps, missile positions and other infrastructure all along the 3,488-km LAC from Ladakh to Arunachal Pradesh, Chinese airbases like Hotan, Kashgar, Gargunsa (Ngari Gunsa), Lhasa-Gonggar and Shigatse have also augmented their capacities for additional fighters and bombers. “These airbases continue to have additional deployments. There is not much change,” said another officer.


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