India - China: Differing Perceptions
STORIES, ANALYSES, EXPERT VIEWS
As India and China mark the 75th anniversary of their bilateral ties this year, the border dispute in eastern Ladakh continues to define present-day relations between the two countries. It’s the biggest issue for New Delhi. But in Beijing, writes Rishi Gupta (Assistant Director of the Asia Society Policy Institute, New Delhi; writes on the Asia-Pacific affairs, strategic Himalayas, and South Asian geopolitics) “they’re concerned about the growing anti-China sentiments in India.”
Cautious optimism, but not a positive shift
Since the military standoff in June 2020, relations have been tense, and in the past four years, there has been no political dialogue. It is the military and diplomats on the two sides who have engaged in discussions on the border.
The recent high-level meetings—including separate talks between Indian foreign minister S Jaishankar, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, and China’s top diplomats—have sparked cautious optimism about a possible resolution. But this does not “mark a positive shift.
“It is primarily because, for India, the cardinal issue remains the comprehensive resolution of the border conflict—not just the 75 per cent disengagement, but also the de-escalation issue and joint patrolling in the bordering areas along the Line of Actual Control. This is in line with Jaishankar’s 2022 statement at the Asia Society Policy Institute in Delhi that “the state of the border will determine th state of the relationship.”
The Indian Army Chief, on 1 October, added that the situation at the border today is “stable, but not normal ans it’s sensitive.”
At the 92nd anniversary, Air Force chief Air Chief Marshal Amar Preet Singh pointed out in a blunt message to the Indian defence manufacturing sector about the need to catch up with China in technology and, even more importantly from the fleet strength point of view, to raise production rates of defence equipment.
Noting that the IAF, with 31 squadrons, is way behind the required number of 42 fighter squadrons, the Air chief said the Air Force can move towards such strengthening of its fleet only if the domestic sector can match Chinese manufacturing standards and speed and offer more fighter jets.
Chinese perceptions
China however, has a different approach to the bilateral ties. During Gupta’s recent visit to China as part of an Indian delegation, Chinese officials and scholars emphasised a desire to rejuvenate bilateral ties. “Their advice? Do not make the border dispute the focal point for an overall engagement; pursue economic relations with an open mindset.
“The popular on-ground view in China is that the growing bilateral trade between the two countries should be a marker of furthering ties in the economic domain.” In FY 2023-24, the bilateral trade between India and China accounted for $118.4 billion. Such numbers in the face of a high-scale conflict exhibit the importance of bilateral trade inputs in their respective economies.
But these numbers, states Gupta “have a problem—‘trade deficit’. The staggering $100 billion trade deficit with China exacerbates India’s economic vulnerabilities. While the overall trade volume underscores significant economic interdependence, this imbalance reflects a structural asymmetry that will influence the future trajectory of their political and economic relations.”
As a result of the tensions, Chinese businesses—especially investors—have lost access to one of the world’s fastest-growing markets. “There is an intense frustration among local businesses eager to invest in India, who see the diplomatic chill becoming a roadblock, making it harder for them to seize the opportunities.”
Unequal India - US: There is a view in Beijing, notes Gupta “that India’s deepening ties with the United States across the domains—defence, technology, and trade— are seen as unreliable, and suggests that India must tread carefully to avoid over-dependence. Also, a common perception of India’s rile in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) is that it runs contradictory to Delhi’s pursuit of ‘strategic autonomy’….”
Anti-India business sentiment growing in China
Hemant Adlakha (professor of Chinese at the Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi; also Vice-Chairperson and Honorary Fellow at the Institute of Chinese Studies-ICS, Delhi) notes that “increasingly, public sentiment seems to be rising in China against doing business with India.”
He believes social media can be an interesting window to understand the opinion of the common Chinese public.
Beijing-based media professional Mu Chunshan, who has been reporting and analysing foreign affairs for over two decades, believes that while in general, the Chinese have no malice towards India, the border dispute between the neighbours is a sticking point.
India containing China: The Chinese perception is that “India has besieged and contained China with the support of the West, joining the Quad for this purpose. However, while most Chinese people do not like to see India get too close to the United States, they believe under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India can maintain a balance among major countries in the world, including Russia, the United States, and the Global South.”
Many Chinese netizens, writes Adlakha “look at Indians with envy, for they believe most Indians have a happy-go-lucky attitude towards life whereas the Chinese are always griping……”
Envy of Indians: Other things many Chinese appreciate is that “Indian billionaires seem richer than China’s, most Indian women seem to have a golden bracelet or earring to flaunt, and India is doing very well in its Mars programme. India’s high rape statistics and the caste system, however, do come in for frequent condemnation.”
Whether or not to decouple: Amid these broad trends, recently, in experts’ opinions, social media comments, and the ‘letter to the editor’ sections of news portals, Adlakha believes “there’s a renewed debate on whether or not to decouple the economy of China from India, especially making investments in India.” The debate was heightened after a recent report in Bloomberg that China had asked its carmakers not to export their EV technology.
The belief iOS that in the past three-four years, the Indian government has been “victimising” and “harassing” several Chinese companies operating in India, including Xiomai, OPPO, Vivo, etc.
Two opinion categories: The views of Chinese readers’ “can be divided into two categories. One set of opinions is critical of the attitude and approach of Chinese businesses overseas in general…..The other set of opinions is specifically targeting India.” Many Chinese are convinced that if ‘we export industrial capabilities to India and help India build infrastructure and industrial chains, that would mean we are helping India and the US join forces to damage our own industrial supply chain.’
