India - Bangladesh: UPSET with China, Hasina Opts for India on Teesta River Water Dispute
STORIES, ANALYSES, EXPERT VIEWS
Back from her China visit, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina announced in Dhaka that India, as the next-door neighbour, has the right on the Teesta water conservation and associated special economic zone (SEZ) project and she would prefer New Delhi to implement the same.
Both China and India are competing to build the mega project on the cross-border river involving a reservoir. But New Delhi is believed to have reservations over China's potential involvement in the project near its strategic Siliguri Corridor, also known as the Chicken's Neck, which connects the northeastern region with the rest of India. India’s concerns are genuine given the years-long border standoff with China in eastern Ladakh.
Hasina upset with China
Earlier, on June 25, Hasina told reporters in Dhaka that Bangladesh would carefully assess the proposals from both India and China on this project and accept the better one for her country. However, the Bangladesh PM has now clearly spelled out her preference. ‘...I would prioritise that India will do it [the Teesta project]. India holds the water of Teesta River.... So, they should do the project and they would give whatever is necessary here if they do the project,’ Hasina said in Dhaka on July 14.
She seems to be upset over China remaining non-committal on backing the project during her recent Beijing trip. Hasina cut short her China visit after Beijing backtracked on a financial package of $5 billion and did not offer her adequate protocol.
She had expected to hold a lengthy meeting with Chinese President Xi Jingping but the latter met her briefly, leaving the Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang as her principal interlocutor. Even foreign minister Wang Yi did not call on the visiting Bangladesh PM.
State-run Chinese media did not give adequate coverage to Hasina's visit as well, which was rare as any visiting leader tends to get prominent exposure in official media.
Geopolitical observers say with this act, China showed disapproval of her two visits to Delhi ahead of the Beijing trip.
These developments may have prompted Hasina to cut short her visit by a day.
China backtracks on commitment: Ahead of Hasina’s China trip, Beijing had promised $5 billion loan assistance to Dhaka. But it eventually assured a package of only about $100 million.
Claims and counter claims by India, Bangladesh
The Teesta river, originating in Sikkim and flowing through West Bengal into Bangladesh, serves as a crucial transboundary river for irrigation and fishing. Bangladesh, with its floodplain spanning 2,750 square kilometres, heavily relies on the Teesta's waters.
However, with 83% of the river's catchment area in India and only 17% in Bangladesh, disputes over water withdrawals have led to severe shortages in Bangladesh's five districts during dry seasons.
Currently, India claims a 55% share of the Teesta's waters, while Bangladesh contends for a higher allocation, as its current share is less than that of India's.
Hydropower on the Teesta is another point of conflict. There are at least 26 projects on the river mostly in Sikkim, aimed at producing some 50,000MW. Bangladesh wants 50% of the Teesta waters between December and May every year, because that's when the water flow to the country drops drastically.
India says it has its own compulsions. “Not enough water is flowing into the Teesta to meet our irrigation needs. We have to increase the area under irrigation in North Bengal to boost agricultural production. We will achieve our target of bringing in 1.5 lakh acres of farmland,” said then West Bengal irrigation minister Rajib Banerjee in 2021.
Strategic dilemma for Dhaka: the china factor
Some experts argue that the Teesta project has landed Bangladesh in a strategic dilemma. Writing for The Diplomat, Kamal Uddin Mazumder, a Dhaka-based security and strategic affairs analyst, said, “The Teesta river project has far-reaching implications for Bangladesh and its relations with India and China. While maintaining neutrality is crucial for Bangladesh’s foreign policy, the Teesta project poses a challenge as it may force Bangladesh to take sides or risk alienating key partners.
“Engaging with India could reinforce bilateral relations and address immediate security concerns, but at the risk of alienating China and potentially missing out on economic opportunities. Conversely, embracing China’s involvement may yield economic benefits but could strain relations with India.”
However, according to an Indian analyst, the China factor should not be overstated. “India-Bangladesh ties today stand on their own merit. Hasina and Modi have ensured that by focusing on concrete tangible outcomes for the people of both nations, they have redefined the contours of what an ideal partnership between two neighbours should look like. Mutual respect, mutual interest and mutual sensitivity have made this relationship an exemplar for all others,” writes professor Harsh V Pant, vice-president, Studies and Foreign Policy at Observer Research Foundation)
