Delhi Assembly Election: The Biggest Looser is The India BLOC
Asia News Agency
Experts and the media continue to analyses BJP’s win in the Delhi Assembly because of its profound impact on national politics.
Lofty claim of providing a national alternative did not materialise
In an ideal world, writes Swapan Dasgupta (journalist and politician; influential within the Indian right wing) “the outcome of the election to the Delhi assembly would have merited just a casual footnote in the national mindscape….In political terms, there has often (but not always) been a mismatch between the way Delhi has voted in parliamentary elections and the choices it has exercised for the 70-member assembly. Those with long memories may recall that the Bharatiya Jana Sangh, the earlier incarnation of the Bharatiya Janata Party, surprised everyone by winning six of the seven Lok Sabha seats in 1967. This was a source of great irritation to Indira Gandhi…..”
The see-saw competition between the Congress and the BJP was disrupted in 2013 when, Arvind Kejriwal swept the Delhi assembly election in 2015. The AAP’s success lay in securing the near-total allegiance of the Congress’s support base among Muslims and slum dwellers. “The AAP was particularly successful in ensuring that the euphoria around Narendra Modi remained confined to national elections and didn’t percolate down to municipal politics.”
Although the AAP made its debut with the lofty claim of providing a national alternative to both the Congress and the BJP, Dasgupta says “this was never realised in practice….”
The AAP’s Delhi defeat now “has dented the intellectual arrogance of the ‘alternative politics’ practitioners who bedded with mainstream anti-BJP parties in the INDIA coalition and yet maintained a contrived distance. The post-poll justification by AAP-supporting intellectuals that the BJP successfully shifted the centre of gravity to the middle classes is a comforting message to the defeated party. However, the Lokniti-CSDS post-poll analysis of the Delhi election shows that the erosion of the AAP from 61% (in 2020) to 50% among the poor, and from 62% to 44% among the lower classes was more substantial than its decline from 53% to 44% among the middle classes. In short, it was the failure to deliver a decent quality of governance that was at the root of the AAP’s failure to win a third term.”
The AAP’s core vote among the poor remains intact and that “it would be a folly to dismiss its political relevance on the strength of one major defeat. Its future will depend substantially on how much success the BJP makes of its newest addition to the double engine fleet.”
Less about the expansion of the BJP, more about the dramatic collapse of the AAP
The outcome of the Delhi Assembly elections, writes The Hindu “is less about the expansion of the BJP and more about the dramatic collapse of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)…..” Its “rise was rooted in its appeal to Delhi’s middle class, transitioning from an anti-corruption movement into a political entity that initially captivated voters with its fresh rhetoric against the traditional political establishment. However, its governance style soon became synonymous with reckless populism, a cynical approach to politics, and an increasingly coarse political discourse. While it sought to consolidate power through unchecked welfarism, the effectiveness of governance declined, and its credibility began to erode…..”
For the BJP, this decisive victory presents “fresh opportunities. The party can now focus on improving infrastructure, civic amenities, and governance, areas that could help it score quick wins. Its grip on the Hindi heartland is now reinforced as Delhi’s political and economic dynamics are tied with those of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Haryana.”
AAP’s downfall has implications for the non-BJP Opposition: Meanwhile, “Kejriwal’s ambitions of positioning himself as a national alternative to Prime Minister Narendra Modi have suffered a severe setback if not a complete collapse. His strategy of securing Muslim voters as a captive support base has also faltered. More broadly, AAP’s downfall has implications for the non-BJP Opposition. The assumption that the 2024 general election results signalled a fundamental shift against the BJP now appears unfounded. The Opposition parties must reassess their strategies if they hope to challenge the ruling party effectively. The Congress, despite drawing a blank, might be encouraged by AAP’s defeat, but it could also face challenges to its helming of the INDIA bloc as it faces criticism for not helping build a common front against the BJP.”
