BJP’S Core Appeal Intact
STORIES, ANALYSES, EXPERT VIEWS
The failure to win a single-party majority in the Lok Sabha election in June was termed as the end of the world for BJP. Similarly, the unqualified victory of the party in Haryana was termed as the end of all problems. In the view of Ashok Malik (partner, The Asia Group, and chair of its India practice) “it's easy to jump from one facile conclusion to another and overread the most immediate event. However, a more rigorous assessment of the state of BJP requires a longer-term timeframe and a deeper appreciation of the party's attributes and shortcomings…..”
Malik considers certain points in his assessment of the BJP.
BJP’s baseline vote share will not diminish
BJP’s growth, “in what can loosely be termed the Narendra Modi epoch beginning with the state elections of winter 2013, has expanded the party's geographical footprint and deepened its voter reserves. Simply put, this means the baseline vote and seat share of the party-beyond which it is unlikely to fall-is much more significant today. This gives BJP greater cushion and resilience. Even on its worst day, it's not going to entirely collapse. Far from it, this means it has greater capacities to recover from a setback.”
Haryana is one example. “But honestly, there is a pattern now. In a succession of state elections-Gujarat (2022), Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh (both 2023), and in a sense even Bihar (2020) -the party has converted a narrow victory or outright defeat in the previous assembly election to a strong win.”
There is more to BJP’s resilience and wins.
Determination to course-correct
The five states mentioned above “are all very different. Sociologically, only Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh fall into a 'traditional', 20th century BJP stronghold definition. Clearly, BJP has crafted individual strategies to navigate a comeback in each of these polities. This runs beyond luck….it indicates a determination to course-correct and re-tool.” If it can be done in a set of states, it can “be done in the next national election.”
It's not that BJP is without frailties or problems. But the party is “coming to terms with among the most rapid phases of expansion in modern electoral history anywhere.”
Idealism and zeal in BJP’s DNA
At its heart, feels Malik “BJP is not a cynical, tired and decadent party…..there is still idealism and zeal in the party's DNA. There are still new frontiers: symbiosis of a national project and regional impulses is still an honourable pursuit.”
Not every experiment succeeds, “but there is a resolve that takes the party back to the drawing board-and impels it to experiment again, and again, relentlessly. West Bengal, Punjab and Tamil Nadu still remain. In each case the imperative is electoral, but the challenge and instrumentality deficit is societal.”
Learning from the Haryana election: warning signs for Indian liberals
From BJP’s victory in Haryana too, there are lessons for both the BJP and the Congress. The Congress for one, managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in Haryana. The defeat, writes Hasan Suroor ( writes on the trending topics, exclusive information, Analysis and top headlines at Times of India) “is the latest manifestation of a broader phenomenon: a shift of potentially historic significance (an inexorable right-wing drift) that is underway in Indian politics without our noticing….”
Electorate moving towards the right: It’s no secret that the Indian electorate “has been slowly moving towards the right since the 1990s on the back of the Hindutva/Ram Mandir campaign. Initially restricted to the less-educated lower middle classes, its appeal soon spread to the educated metropolitan elite as it began to acquire intellectual heft.”
Erosion of the liberal-centrist political order: But the “liberals continued to pretend that nothing had changed. The result is a steady erosion (and threatened breakdown) of the liberal-centrist political order.”
As things stand, Suroor writes “it is hard to escape the sense that we are witnessing a slow demise of the traditional middle-of-the-road politics with the right and far-right fast becoming the main drivers of Indian polity.
BJP’s core appeal: Hindutva and PM Modi remains
The important point to ponder is “what makes the BJP keep winning election after election despite the pressures of long incumbency, internal divisions, concerns over growing unemployment, broken poll promises, divisive politics and warnings about creeping authoritarianism, etc?
“Is it only its Hindutva appeal as a flag-bearer for Hindu nationalism? Or its populist policies and formidable cadres? Its knack for social engineering and forging opportunistic alliances? Or Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s personal charisma?"
Considering that much of its policy agenda is broadly the same as its rivals’, Suroor concludes “it leaves the party with only one USP: Hindutva. Many, of course, don’t approve of the way the BJP has used it to communalise Hindu-Muslim relations, but deep down its push for Hindu supremacy has touched a chord with most Hindus outside of the hardcore secular bubble.
“Its other asset, Modi’s charisma, also to a large extent derives from his tub-thumping advocacy of Hindu superiority."
Another liberal assumption that went wrong: Many liberal assumptions that have proved wrong over the years, is “the idea that a diverse country like India with a long tradition of liberalism will never succumb to a majoritarian agenda. Well, it has. Or so it seems.”
